The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actress?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$232K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 95%

Next is Olivia Wilde at 67%. The venues differ most on Merritt Wever (Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 23%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Julianne Moore
95%
Polymarket 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia Wilde
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Samantha MortonArb
60.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 81%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 6730 bps before fees.

Anne HathawayArb
58.7%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 87.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$958
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 88¢ nets 8180 bps before fees.

Amanda SeyfriedArb
53.6%
Polymarket 31.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
31.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 35¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

Tao OkamotoArb
48.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 61.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 62¢ nets 6100 bps before fees.

Renate Reinsve
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ruth Madeley
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Virginie Efira
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Penélope CruzArb
41%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 74%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 6830 bps before fees.

Show 30 more outcomes
Kate O'FlynnArb
28.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 2340 bps before fees.

Sandra HüllerArb
28.5%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 63%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 3200 bps before fees.

Olivia ColmanArb
27.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 31¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

Mariana di GirolamoArb
24.8%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 2110 bps before fees.

Inde NavarretteArb
21%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 78.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$766
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 77¢ nets 7300 bps before fees.

Merritt WeverArb
19.8%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 13¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Parker PoseyArb
16.2%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1340 bps before fees.

Rosalind Eleazar
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emily Blunt
10.7%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
ZendayaArb
7.7%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1080 bps before fees.

Danielle Deadwyler
7.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.

Mikey Madison
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Polymarket
Marion Bailey
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sophie Okonedo
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalie Portman
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Polymarket
Daisy Edgar-Jones
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cynthia Erivo
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Williams
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Monaghan
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Gemma ChanArb
5.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Isabella RosselliniArb
5.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Dakota Johnson
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Laura Linney
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket
Margaret QualleyArb
4.4%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Betty GilpinArb
4.1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Joan Collins
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scarlett Johansson
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Shailene Woodley
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Lily Gladstone
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kirsten Dunst
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Anne Hathaway on Polymarket at 6.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 88¢ (8180 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Olivia Wilde
  • Samantha Morton

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Julianne Moore for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actress?". Julianne Moore leads at 95%. Next is Olivia Wilde at 67%. $232K has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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