The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Visual Effects?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$50K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Dune: Part Three 71.9%

Next is Godzilla Minus Zero at 65.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dune: Part ThreeArb
71.9%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 94.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 53¢ and selling on Kalshi at 88¢ nets 3500 bps before fees.

Godzilla Minus ZeroArb
65.8%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 90.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 84%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
90.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91.6¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 7670 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
65.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 84%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 26¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 5800 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
64.3%
Polymarket 17%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 80.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 78¢ nets 6000 bps before fees.

Avengers: DoomsdayArb
34%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 41%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 46%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 3320 bps before fees.

Spider-Man: Brand New DayArb
28.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 38%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2910 bps before fees.

Narnia
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narnia
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Godzilla Minus Zero on Polymarket at 7.3¢, sell on Kalshi at 84¢ (7670 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dune: Part Three
  • Godzilla Minus Zero
  • Project Hail Mary

Live prices for Dune: Part Three

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Visual Effects?". Dune: Part Three leads at 71.9%. Next is Godzilla Minus Zero at 65.8%. $50K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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