The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

The Odyssey 84%

Next is Wild Horse Nine at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Black Ball
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Debut
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Being Heumann
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Obsession
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Invite
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$733
Trade this on Kalshi
Dune: Part Three
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Project Hail Mary
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
All of a Sudden
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarissa
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cry to Heaven
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Saturn Return
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$529
Trade this on Kalshi
UNABOMBER
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Black Ball

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting". The Odyssey leads at 84%. Next is Wild Horse Nine at 81%. $31K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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