The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$104K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

NAZA 84.8%

Next is You Can See Everything at 81.6%. The venues differ most on Once Upon a Time in Harlem (Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 69%), a 10-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
NAZA
84.8%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 85%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
NAZA
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
NAZA
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 85¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

You Can See EverythingArb
81.6%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 81¢ and selling on Polymarket at 85¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Once Upon a Time in HarlemArb
64.8%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 66¢ and selling on Kalshi at 68¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

American Doctor
55.2%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

14th
41.7%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
14th
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
14th
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 39¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

One in a Million
34.1%
Polymarket 35%polled, 40s agoKalshi 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

Nuisance Bear
31.9%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

MuskArb
30.1%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Musk
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Musk
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 28¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Tutu
24.8%
Polymarket 25%polled, 40s agoKalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tutu
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tutu
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
15.4%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 26¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Musk on Kalshi at 28¢, sell on Polymarket at 33¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • NAZA
  • You Can See Everything
  • Once Upon a Time in Harlem

Live prices for NAZA

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film". NAZA leads at 84.8%. Next is You Can See Everything at 81.6%. $104K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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