The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$117K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 94.6%

Next is The Debut at 88.9%. The venues differ most on The Drama (Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 11%), a 8.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
94.6%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 95%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96¢.

The Debut
88.9%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 90%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 83¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.

Club Kid
61.9%
Polymarket 65%polled, 32s agoKalshi 60%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 43¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 61¢.

Obsession
51.3%
Polymarket 55%polled, 32s agoKalshi 50%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 52¢.

Fjord
44.5%
Polymarket 46%polled, 32s agoKalshi 44%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 44¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 48¢.

Elsinore
24.8%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 29%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Behemoth!
22.1%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 23%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$991
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

The Drama
17.4%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

DiggerArb
15.8%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 17%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
15.2%
Polymarket 16%polled, 32s agoKalshi 13%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Show 8 more outcomes
Josephine
11.7%
Polymarket 11%polled, 32s agoKalshi 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

The Black BallArb
6.8%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Forgotten Island
6.5%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

The Odyssey
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 32s agoKalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
3.7%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 32s agoKalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.7¢.

A Place in Hell
3.6%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Fatherland
2.6%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.1¢.

The Invite
1.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 32s agoKalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Digger on Polymarket at 16¢, sell on Kalshi at 17¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • Club Kid

Live prices for Wild Horse Nine

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay". Wild Horse Nine leads at 94.6%. Next is The Debut at 88.9%. $117K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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