The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$78K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 39.4%

Next is The Invite at 18.1%. The venues differ most on The Invite (Polymarket 21%, Kalshi 27%), a 6.0-point gap.

The Black Ball 39.4%The Invite 18.1%The Odyssey 15.7%Project Hail Mary 4.2%All of a Sudden 3.2%11 others 19.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
39.4%
Polymarket 47%(45.4% fair)polled, 33s agoKalshi 48%(32.4% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
45.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
48%
Fair, margin removed
32.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 46¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 48¢.

The InviteArb
18.1%
Polymarket 21%(20.3% fair)polled, 33s agoKalshi 27%(18.2% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
20.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
18.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 22¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
15.7%
Polymarket 22%(21.3% fair)polled, 33s agoKalshi 20%(13.5% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
21.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 21¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Project Hail Mary
4.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 33s agoKalshi 8%(5.4% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.3¢.

All of a Sudden
3.2%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
2.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 33s agoKalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

WildwoodArb
2.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 33s agoKalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

The Social Reckoning
2.1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Clarissa
1.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Cry to Heaven
1.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
The Whisper Man
1.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Toy Story 5
1.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Saturn Return
1.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(1.3% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 33s agoKalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Invite on Polymarket at 22¢, sell on Kalshi at 24¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • The Invite
  • The Odyssey

Live prices for The Black Ball

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay". The Black Ball leads at 39.4%. Next is The Invite at 18.1%. $78K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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