The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Best Cinematography

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 49.8%

Next is Dune: Part Three at 19.4%. The venues differ most on Project Hail Mary (Polymarket 12.9%, Kalshi 6%), a 6.9-point gap.

The Odyssey 49.8%Dune: Part Three 19.4%Project Hail Mary 8.7%Digger 6.7%Werwulf 5%7 others 10.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
49.8%
Polymarket 59%(48.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 65%(53.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
59%
Fair, margin removed
48.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
65%
Fair, margin removed
53.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 63¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
19.4%
Polymarket 25.5%(21.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 19%(15.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
15.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Project Hail Mary
8.7%
Polymarket 12.9%(10.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%(5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
12.9%
Fair, margin removed
10.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21.6¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$463 (4.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Digger
6.7%
Polymarket 9%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%(5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Werwulf
5%
Polymarket 6.4%(5.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
6.4%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
4.1%
Kalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
1.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Josephine
1.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Obsession
1.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

The Whisper Man
1.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Odyssey on Polymarket at 63¢, sell on Kalshi at 65¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three
  • Project Hail Mary

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Best Cinematography". The Odyssey leads at 49.8%. Next is Dune: Part Three at 19.4%. $42K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets