The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 80%

Next is La Bola Negra at 79%. The venues differ most on Fjord (Polymarket 4.2%, Kalshi 14%), a 9.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
La Bola Negra
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
FjordArb
7.8%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 36s agoKalshi 14%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Possible Love
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 36s agoKalshi 5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

All of a Sudden
4.6%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 36s agoKalshi 4%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Fatherland
3.2%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 36s agoKalshi 2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Minotaur
2.3%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 36s agoKalshi 2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Kalshi
Everytime
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Everytime
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Feito Pipa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Feito Pipa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
The Spiral
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Spiral
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
CowardArb
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoKalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coward
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Coward
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Parallel Tales
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sheep in the Box
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheep in the Box
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Man I Love
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Man I Love
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bitter Christmas
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitter Christmas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hope
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hope
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Beloved
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Beloved
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Dreamed Adventure
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Fjord on Polymarket at 6¢, sell on Kalshi at 7¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • La Bola Negra
  • Fjord

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film". The Black Ball leads at 80%. Next is La Bola Negra at 79%. $62K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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