The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$52K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Werwulf 35.3%

Next is The Odyssey at 15.6%. The venues differ most on Wicker (Polymarket 1.4%, Kalshi 9%), a 7.6-point gap.

Werwulf 35.3%The Odyssey 15.6%Digger 15.3%Clayface 8.4%Dune: Part Three 7%9 others 18.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
WerwulfArb
35.3%
Polymarket 42.7%(38.6% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 37%(33% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
42.7%
Fair, margin removed
38.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43.7¢
Sell Yes
41.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$229 (2.29x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 41¢ and selling on Polymarket at 41.7¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

The Odyssey
15.6%
Polymarket 18%(16.3% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 18%(16.1% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

DiggerArb
15.3%
Polymarket 19%(17.2% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 16%(14.3% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Clayface
8.4%
Polymarket 6.1%(5.5% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 11%(9.8% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clayface
Last price
6.1%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clayface
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.6¢.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
7%
Polymarket 10%(9% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

WickerArb
5.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 41s agoKalshi 9%(8% fair)polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wicker
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wicker
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

I Love Boosters
5.3%
Polymarket 7.7%(7% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
7.7%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Madden
2.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Madden
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Madden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Michael
1.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Rose
0.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Show 4 more outcomes
UNABOMBER
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Cry to Heaven
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Dune: Part Three on Kalshi at 7¢, sell on Polymarket at 8¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Werwulf
  • The Odyssey
  • Digger

Live prices for Werwulf

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Best Makeup and Hairstyling". Werwulf leads at 35.3%. Next is The Odyssey at 15.6%. $52K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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