The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$82K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 43%

Next is The Debut at 16.2%. The venues differ most on The Debut (Polymarket 24%, Kalshi 19%), a 5.0-point gap.

Wild Horse Nine 43%The Debut 16.2%Club Kid 6.1%Digger 6.1%Obsession 6%14 others 22.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
43%
Polymarket 56.5%(42.7% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 54%(43% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
56.5%
Fair, margin removed
42.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
54%
Fair, margin removed
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 55¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 58¢.

The Debut
16.2%
Polymarket 24%(18.1% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 19%(15.1% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
18.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29.4¢
Sell Yes
18.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$340 (3.40x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
15.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Club Kid
6.1%
Polymarket 7%(5.3% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 8%(6.4% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Digger
6.1%
Polymarket 5.6%(4.2% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 10%(8% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Obsession
6%
Polymarket 6.5%(4.9% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 8%(6.4% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$939
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Fjord
5.2%
Polymarket 6.5%(4.9% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 7%(5.6% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Elsinore
3.4%
Polymarket 5.3%(4% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
5.3%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
1.9%
Polymarket 2.8%(2.1% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

The Invite
1.8%
Polymarket 3.2%(2.4% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

The Drama
1.7%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.6% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 9 more outcomes
Josephine
1.6%
Polymarket 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
1.1%
Polymarket 2.7%(2% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
2.7%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

The Black Ball
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 48s agoKalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

A Place in Hell
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoKalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tie
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 48s agoKalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Forgotten Island
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • Club Kid

Live prices for Wild Horse Nine

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay". Wild Horse Nine leads at 43%. Next is The Debut at 16.2%. $82K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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