The Prediction Markets

Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$251K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Andrew Garfield 24%

Next is Paul Giamatti at 22.8%. The venues differ most on John Leguizamo (Polymarket 4%, Kalshi 10%), a 6.0-point gap.

Andrew Garfield 24%Paul Giamatti 22.8%Guitarricadelafuente 11.8%John Leguizamo 7.2%Sam Rockwell 5.9%23 others 28.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Andrew GarfieldArb
24%
Polymarket 31.5%(27.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%(23.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
23.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Paul Giamatti
22.8%
Polymarket 27.5%(24.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 26%(22.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
22.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

GuitarricadelafuenteArb
11.8%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%(12.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
12.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

John LeguizamoArb
7.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%(8.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Sam Rockwell
5.9%
Polymarket 6.8%(6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%(6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6.8%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Robert Pattinson
5.4%
Polymarket 6.6%(5.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
6.6%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Jesse Plemons
3%
Polymarket 5.4%(4.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
5.4%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Edward Norton
1.7%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

John Goodman
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Riz Ahmed
1.5%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.8¢.

Show 18 more outcomes
Jeremy StrongArb
1.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Channing Tatum
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Miles Teller
1%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Guy Pearce
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Michael Fassbender
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Steve Buscemi
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tom Holland
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Scott
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$637
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Colman Domingo
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Daniel Craig
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Himesh Patel
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

James Ortiz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Robert De Niro
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Skyler Gisondo
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tie
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Melton
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Travis Scott
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Andrew Garfield on Kalshi at 27¢, sell on Polymarket at 30¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andrew Garfield
  • Paul Giamatti
  • Guitarricadelafuente

Live prices for Andrew Garfield

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor". Andrew Garfield leads at 24%. Next is Paul Giamatti at 22.8%. $251K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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