The Prediction Markets

Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actress

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$168K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Anne Hathaway 43.5%

Next is Amanda Seyfried at 29.3%. The venues differ most on Amanda Seyfried (Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 37%), a 6.6-point gap.

Anne Hathaway 43.5%Amanda Seyfried 29.3%Penelope Cruz 6%Samantha Morton 4.4%Zendaya 3.4%13 others 13.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anne HathawayArb
43.5%
Polymarket 52.5%(47% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 50%(41.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
52.5%
Fair, margin removed
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
41.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 50¢ and selling on Polymarket at 51¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Amanda SeyfriedArb
29.3%
Polymarket 30.5%(27.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 37%(30.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $296 (2.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
30.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33.8¢
Sell Yes
27.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$296 (2.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
30.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 33.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

Penelope CruzArb
6%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%(4.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Samantha Morton
4.4%
Polymarket 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket
Zendaya
3.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Kate O'FlynnArb
2.8%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Gemma Chan
1.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Inde Navarrette
1.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$766
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tao Okamoto
1.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Sandra Huller
1.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 8 more outcomes
Mariana di Girolamo
1%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Danielle Deadwyler
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Margaret Qualley
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tie
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Parker Posey
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Isabella Rossellini
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Betty Gilpin
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Olivia Colman
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Penelope Cruz on Kalshi at 7¢, sell on Polymarket at 9¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anne Hathaway
  • Amanda Seyfried
  • Penelope Cruz

Live prices for Anne Hathaway

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actress". Anne Hathaway leads at 43.5%. Next is Amanda Seyfried at 29.3%. $168K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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