The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2022: Will 'The Power Of The Dog" win the Best Picture?

Closed
Mar 27, 2022
Traded
$55K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 27, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Oscars 2022: Will 'The Power Of The Dog" win the Best Picture?". $55K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 27, 2022.

The 94th Academy Awards ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will honor the best films released between March 1 and December 31 2021, and is scheduled to take place in Los Angeles on March 27, 2022. The nominations were announced on February 8, 2022. This is a market on whether The Power Of The Dog will win the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 94th Academy Awards (“Oscars”), scheduled to take place on Sunday, March 27 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if The Power Of The Dog wins the award for Best Picture at the 94th Academy Awards, and “No” if it does not win the award for Best Picture. If for any reason the winner is not announced by April 27 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Oscars website (https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2022) and the award database (http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets