The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

Closes
Jan 21, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$802K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

John Malkovich 91.9%

Next is Matt Damon at 91.7%. The venues differ most on Timothée Chalamet (Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 16%), a 5.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
John MalkovichArb
91.9%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 88¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Matt Damon
91.7%
Polymarket 94.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.6¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 94¢.

Paul Giamatti
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Scott
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 84¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

John Leguizamo
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Guitarricadelafuente
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Edward Norton
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom CruiseArb
58.9%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 61¢ and selling on Polymarket at 64¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Ryan GoslingArb
53.1%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 45¢ and selling on Kalshi at 73¢ nets 2800 bps before fees.

Robert PattinsonArb
47.3%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 26¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Show 43 more outcomes
Anthony Ippolito
40%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 34¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 38¢.

John TurturroArb
39.3%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 37¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Sam RockwellArb
32.7%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 6860 bps before fees.

Colman Domingo
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yura Borisov
24.2%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Garfield
22.5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Firstman
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Firstman
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O'Connor
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack O’Connell
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sebastian Stan
18.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Pedro Pascal
16.8%
Polymarket 14.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
14.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16.4¢.

Timothée ChalametArb
13.7%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Jaafar JacksonArb
13.2%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Dominic Sessa
12%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Sessa
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Sessa
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Goodman
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Riz Ahmed
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mahershala Ali
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mahershala Ali
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Buscemi
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Antonio Banderas
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad PittArb
8.4%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 470 bps before fees.

Himesh Patel
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Skyler Gisondo
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miles Teller
6.5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
James Ortiz
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keanu Reeves
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keanu Reeves
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Fassbender
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Guy Pearce
4.5%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Channing Tatum
4.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Driver
4.2%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Robert AramayoArb
4.2%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 290 bps before fees.

Daniel Craig
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Allen White
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Allen White
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy StrongArb
3.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Tom Holland
3.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Plemons
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Scott
2.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Bardem
2.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Charles Melton
2.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert DeNiro
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert DeNiro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Robert DeNiro
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O'Connor
1.9%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Ethan Hawke
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ethan Hawke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hanns Zischler
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hanns Zischler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Kalshi
Sacha Baron Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sacha Baron Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sam Rockwell on Polymarket at 8.4¢, sell on Kalshi at 77¢ (6860 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Malkovich
  • Matt Damon
  • Paul Giamatti

Live prices for John Malkovich

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations ". John Malkovich leads at 91.9%. Next is Matt Damon at 91.7%. $802K has traded across 53 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 21, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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