The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$2.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

John Malkovich 54.9%

Next is Matt Damon at 36.5%. The venues differ most on John Turturro (Polymarket 1.6%, Kalshi 43%), a 41-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
John MalkovichArb
54.9%
Polymarket 43.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 53s agoKalshi 92%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
43.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44.9¢
Sell Yes
42.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$223 (2.23x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 44.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 88¢ nets 4310 bps before fees.

Matt DamonArb
36.5%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 53s agoKalshi 93%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$172K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 20¢ and selling on Kalshi at 93¢ nets 7300 bps before fees.

Andrew ScottArb
33.6%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 53s agoKalshi 84%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 6600 bps before fees.

Paul Giamatti
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom CruiseArb
25.4%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 53s agoKalshi 59%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$224K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 14¢ and selling on Kalshi at 59¢ nets 4500 bps before fees.

John TurturroArb
24.9%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 43%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 3300 bps before fees.

Ryan GoslingArb
17.4%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 45%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 44¢ nets 4260 bps before fees.

Robert PattinsonArb
16.1%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 53s agoKalshi 52%polled, 53s agoKalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 51¢ nets 4740 bps before fees.

Guitarricadelafuente
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yura BorisovArb
11.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 24%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Show 43 more outcomes
Andrew Garfield
11.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 27%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony IppolitoArb
11.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 53s agoKalshi 38%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$933
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2940 bps before fees.

John Leguizamo
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mahershala AliArb
7.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mahershala Ali
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mahershala Ali
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Timothée ChalametArb
7.5%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 53s agoKalshi 15%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1080 bps before fees.

Pedro PascalArb
5.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 14%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1380 bps before fees.

Sebastian StanArb
4.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 13%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1270 bps before fees.

Sam RockwellArb
4.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 53s agoKalshi 7%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 580 bps before fees.

Jaafar JacksonArb
4.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 12%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1140 bps before fees.

Dominic Sessa
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Sessa
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Allen White
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Allen White
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keanu Reeves
3.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keanu Reeves
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Keanu Reeves
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert AramayoArb
2.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 680 bps before fees.

Jeremy StrongArb
2.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 5%polled, 53s agoKalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Guy Pearce
2.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Edward Norton
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Goodman
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Riz Ahmed
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Scott
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$637
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam DriverArb
1.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Brad PittArb
1.1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Sacha Baron Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sacha Baron Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sacha Baron Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Channing Tatum
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Melton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Colman Domingo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Craig
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Hanns Zischler
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hanns Zischler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hanns Zischler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Himesh Patel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacob Tremblay
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Tremblay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
James Ortiz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Plemons
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Fassbender
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Miles Teller
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert De Niro
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert DeNiro
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert DeNiro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Skyler Gisondo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Buscemi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Holland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ethan Hawke
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ethan Hawke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ethan Hawke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier BardemArb
0.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

Josh O'ConnorArb
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Matt Damon on Polymarket at 20¢, sell on Kalshi at 93¢ (7300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Malkovich
  • Matt Damon
  • Andrew Scott

Live prices for John Malkovich

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner". John Malkovich leads at 54.9%. Next is Matt Damon at 36.5%. $2.3M has traded across 53 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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