The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$483K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 92.8%

Next is Samantha Morton at 78%. The venues differ most on Laura Linney (Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 9%), a 36-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Julianne Moore
92.8%
Polymarket 95%polled, 44s agoKalshi 91%polled, 44s agoKalshi 94%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 94¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96¢.

Samantha Morton
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Wilde
67.1%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 67%polled, 44s agoKalshi 65%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

Tao Okamoto
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amanda Seyfried
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Inde NavarretteArb
58.6%
Polymarket 79%polled, 44s agoKalshi 81%polled, 44s agoKalshi 4%polled, 44s agoKalshi 70.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$137K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 78¢ nets 7400 bps before fees.

Sandra HüllerArb
53.6%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 68%polled, 44s agoKalshi 27%polled, 44s agoKalshi 55%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 63¢ nets 3600 bps before fees.

Renate Reinsve
49.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 52%polled, 44s agoKalshi 44%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 45¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

Ruth MadeleyArb
48.9%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 44%polled, 44s agoKalshi 63%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 46¢ and selling on Kalshi at 59¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Virginie EfiraArb
44.3%
Polymarket 41%polled, 44s agoKalshi 44%polled, 44s agoKalshi 49%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 44¢ and selling on Kalshi at 49¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Show 34 more outcomes
Anne HathawayArb
41.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 44s agoKalshi 8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 90%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$958
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 88¢ nets 8180 bps before fees.

Olivia Colman
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kate O'Flynn
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Penélope CruzArb
35.9%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 3%polled, 44s agoKalshi 75%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 6410 bps before fees.

Mariana di Girolamo
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Merritt Wever
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeon Do-yeon
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeon Do-yeon
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mason Reeves
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mason Reeves
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Parker Posey
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Emily BluntArb
19.5%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 11%polled, 44s agoKalshi 45%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 37¢ nets 2570 bps before fees.

Laura Linney
18.1%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Rosalind Eleazar
16%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 15%polled, 44s agoKalshi 20.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Carrie Coon
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carrie Coon
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marion Bailey
13.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 20.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Léa Seydoux
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Léa Seydoux
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Kalshi
Mikey Madison
9.8%
Polymarket 7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 15.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

ZendayaArb
9.1%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 44s agoKalshi 5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 16%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 750 bps before fees.

Betty Gilpin
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Danielle Deadwyler
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
Gemma Chan
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Kalshi
Isabella Rossellini
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Margaret Qualley
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Daisy Edgar-JonesArb
7.8%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Michelle Williams
7.3%
Polymarket 8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Michelle Monaghan
6.6%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Sophie Okonedo
6.6%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Natalie Portman
6.4%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 44s agoKalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Scarlett Johansson
6.3%
Polymarket 4%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Joan Collins
6.1%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $787 (7.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$787 (7.87x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12.7¢.

Cynthia Erivo
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 44s agoKalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Shailene Woodley
5.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.5¢.

Dakota Johnson
5.7%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Kirsten Dunst
4.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.2¢.

Lily Gladstone
1.4%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.5¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Anne Hathaway on Polymarket at 6.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 88¢ (8180 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Samantha Morton
  • Olivia Wilde

Live prices for Julianne Moore

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations". Julianne Moore leads at 92.8%. Next is Samantha Morton at 78%. $483K has traded across 44 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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