The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$112K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

La Bola Negra 86%

Next is The Invite at 73.9%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
La Bola Negra
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The InviteArb
73.9%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 90.1¢ nets 6310 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
72.8%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 91.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 87¢ nets 6700 bps before fees.

The Black BallArb
66.7%
Polymarket 86%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 48¢ and selling on Polymarket at 82¢ nets 3400 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
58.3%
Polymarket 71%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 78%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 60¢ nets 5200 bps before fees.

All of a SuddenArb
40.9%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 60¢ nets 5600 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
30.1%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 57%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

Being Heumann
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
22.7%
Polymarket 28.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
28.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33.2¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$301 (3.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 24¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

InkArb
17.4%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Show 9 more outcomes
Primetime
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
ClarissaArb
10.4%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

Wildwood
6.9%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

The Social Reckoning
5.8%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Cry to HeavenArb
5.5%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Toy Story 5
4.3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.2¢.

The Whisper Man
4.1%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Saturn Return
3.3%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Odyssey on Kalshi at 20¢, sell on Polymarket at 87¢ (6700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • La Bola Negra
  • The Invite
  • The Odyssey

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list La Bola Negra for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations". La Bola Negra leads at 86%. Next is The Invite at 73.9%. $112K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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