The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$180K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 99%

Next is All of a Sudden at 94%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
All of a Sudden
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
WildwoodArb
81.4%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 19s agoKalshi 74%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 75¢ and selling on Polymarket at 89¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Possible Love
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Toy Story 5Arb
57.8%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 19s agoKalshi 8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 82¢ nets 7400 bps before fees.

Minotaur
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Forgotten IslandArb
45%
Polymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 59%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 58¢ nets 5500 bps before fees.

1949 / Fatherland
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ray GunnArb
42.6%
Polymarket 66%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 68%polled, 19s agoKalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 60¢ nets 5500 bps before fees.

Show 15 more outcomes
Iron BoyArb
41.2%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 49¢ nets 4700 bps before fees.

HoppersArb
35%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 44%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 35¢ nets 3300 bps before fees.

Rose
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy BottomArb
27%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 32%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 1200 bps before fees.

TanglesArb
24.7%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 36%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tangles
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Coward
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coward
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minions & MonstersArb
10.6%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Sheep in the Box
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sheep in the Box
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitter Christmas
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bitter Christmas
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Beloved
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Beloved
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Parallel Tales
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Dreamed Adventure
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
The Man I Love
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Man I Love
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Toy Story 5 on Kalshi at 8¢, sell on Polymarket at 82¢ (7400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • All of a Sudden
  • Fjord

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film Nominations". The Black Ball leads at 99%. Next is All of a Sudden at 94%. $180K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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