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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Wildwood 77.3%
Next is God is Shy at 67%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Wildwood77.3%Not listed74%74¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, just now75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Wildwood77.3%Kalshi 87%polled, just nowKalshi 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Wildwood
77.3%
Not listed
74%
74¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, just now
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Wildwood
77.3%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowKalshi 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wildwood
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wildwood
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $22K
God is Shy67%67%45¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)God is Shy67%Polymarket 67%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
God is Shy
67%
67%
45¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
God is Shy
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- God is Shy
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $140
What We Leave Behind66.5%66.5%49¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed84¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $119 (1.19x)What We Leave Behind66.5%Polymarket 66.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
What We Leave Behind
66.5%
66.5%
49¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
84¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
What We Leave Behind
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- What We Leave Behind
- Last price
- 66.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $1K
Because Today is Saturday61.5%61.5%41¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed82¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $122 (1.22x)Because Today is Saturday61.5%Polymarket 61.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Because Today is Saturday
61.5%
61.5%
41¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
82¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Because Today is Saturday
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Because Today is Saturday
- Last price
- 61.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $1K
Paper Trail61.5%61.5%53¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed70¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Paper Trail61.5%Polymarket 61.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Paper Trail
61.5%
61.5%
53¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
70¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Paper Trail
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paper Trail
- Last price
- 61.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $2K
Dollhouse Elephant58.5%58.5%42¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed75¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Dollhouse Elephant58.5%Polymarket 58.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Dollhouse Elephant
58.5%
58.5%
42¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
75¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Dollhouse Elephant
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dollhouse Elephant
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Toy Story 550.9%Not listed8%4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Toy Story 550.9%Kalshi 87%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Toy Story 5
50.9%
Not listed
8%
4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Toy Story 5
50.9%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Toy Story 5
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $9K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Toy Story 5
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $8K
Forgotten Island45%Not listed3%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Forgotten Island45%Kalshi 59%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Forgotten Island
45%
Not listed
3%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Forgotten Island
45%
Kalshi 59%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Forgotten Island
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Forgotten Island
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $3K
Dog Alone43.5%43.5%29¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Dog Alone43.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Dog Alone
43.5%
43.5%
29¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Dog Alone
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dog Alone
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $3K
Water Girl40%40%36¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Water Girl40%Polymarket 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Water Girl
40%
40%
36¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Water Girl
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Water Girl
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Please37.5%37.5%21¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Please37.5%Polymarket 37.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Please
37.5%
37.5%
21¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Please
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Please
- Last price
- 37.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $4K
Hoppers34.3%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Hoppers34.3%Kalshi 45%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Hoppers
34.3%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Hoppers
34.3%
Kalshi 45%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hoppers
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $9K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hoppers
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $579
Ray Gunn34.2%Not listed4%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Ray Gunn34.2%Kalshi 68%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ray Gunn
34.2%
Not listed
4%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ray Gunn
34.2%
Kalshi 68%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ray Gunn
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ray Gunn
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
With Tapes and Toasts in the Car33.5%33.5%31¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)With Tapes and Toasts in the Car33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
33.5%
33.5%
31¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $839
Iron Boy31.8%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Iron Boy31.8%Kalshi 60%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Iron Boy
31.8%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Iron Boy
31.8%
Kalshi 60%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iron Boy
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iron Boy
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom24.3%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom24.3%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
24.3%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
24.3%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $607
Saba22%22%21¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Saba22%Polymarket 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Saba
22%
22%
21¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Saba
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Saba
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $5K
Tangles19.6%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Tangles19.6%Kalshi 36%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tangles
19.6%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tangles
19.6%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tangles
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tangles
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
El Cuerpo de Cristo16%16%13¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)El Cuerpo de Cristo16%Polymarket 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
El Cuerpo de Cristo
16%
16%
13¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
El Cuerpo de Cristo
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- El Cuerpo de Cristo
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $8K
Minions & Monsters10%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Minions & Monsters10%Kalshi 13%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Minions & Monsters
10%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Minions & Monsters
10%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minions & Monsters
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $6K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minions & Monsters
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $155
Tie1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $208
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Wildwood
- God is Shy
- What We Leave Behind
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Wildwood for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations". Wildwood leads at 77.3%. Next is God is Shy at 67%. $124K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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