The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$103K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Wildwood 77.3%

Next is Toy Story 5 at 50.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wildwood
77.3%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 74%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Toy Story 5
50.9%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Forgotten Island
45%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoppers
34.3%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Kalshi
Ray Gunn
34.2%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iron Boy
31.8%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
24.3%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Kalshi
With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
22.9%
Polymarket 22.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $405 (4.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
Last price
22.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24.7¢
Sell Yes
21.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$405 (4.05x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
Tangles
19.6%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
God is Shy
14.2%
Polymarket 14.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
God is Shy
Last price
14.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
13.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
What We Leave Behind
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
What We Leave Behind
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Dollhouse Elephant
10.7%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dollhouse Elephant
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
Minions & Monsters
10%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
El Cuerpo de Cristo
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
El Cuerpo de Cristo
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Water Girl
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Water Girl
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Polymarket
Dog Alone
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dog Alone
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Paper Trail
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paper Trail
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Because Today is Saturday
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Because Today is Saturday
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Saba
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saba
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Please
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Please
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wildwood
  • Toy Story 5
  • Forgotten Island

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Wildwood for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Winner". Wildwood leads at 77.3%. Next is Toy Story 5 at 50.9%. $103K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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