The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Casting Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 87%

Next is The Odyssey at 84%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Wild Horse Nine
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$524
Trade this on Polymarket
The Odyssey
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black Ball
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Debut
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Being Heumann
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Polymarket
The Invite
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Obsession
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part Three
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Fjord
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Michael
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a Sudden
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Polymarket
Cry to Heaven
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Saturn Return
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
UNABOMBER
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarissa
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Odyssey
  • The Black Ball

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Casting Nominations". Wild Horse Nine leads at 87%. Next is The Odyssey at 84%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Casting. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Casting when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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