The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 45.4%

Next is La Bola Negra at 20.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

The Odyssey 45.4%La Bola Negra 20.8%Wild Horse Nine 13.7%Dune: Part Three 12%Obsession 3.4%12 others 4.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
The Odyssey
45.4%
Polymarket 57.5%(45.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
57.5%
Fair, margin removed
45.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
La Bola Negra
20.8%
Polymarket 26.4%(20.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 38.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $262 (2.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
26.4%
Fair, margin removed
20.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.2¢
Sell Yes
14.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$262 (2.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wild Horse Nine
13.7%
Polymarket 17.3%(13.7% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
17.3%
Fair, margin removed
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part Three
12%
Polymarket 15.3%(12% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 29.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $334 (3.34x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
15.3%
Fair, margin removed
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$334 (3.34x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Obsession
3.4%
Polymarket 4.3%(3.4% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Being Heumann
1.1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
Fjord
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
The Debut
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
The Invite
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
All of a Sudden
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Polymarket
UNABOMBER
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarissa
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$693
Trade this on Polymarket
Cry to Heaven
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Polymarket
Saturn Return
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Wild Horse Nine

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Casting Winner". The Odyssey leads at 45.4%. Next is La Bola Negra at 20.8%. $25K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Casting. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Casting when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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