The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 85.9%

Next is Dune: Part Three at 71.1%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
85.9%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 96%polled, 38s agoKalshi 65%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 89%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 68¢ and selling on Polymarket at 93¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
71.1%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 89%polled, 38s agoKalshi 19%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 23¢ and selling on Polymarket at 91¢ nets 6800 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail MaryArb
53.4%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 61%polled, 38s agoKalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 5300 bps before fees.

1949 / Fatherland
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
WerwulfArb
35%
Polymarket 33%polled, 38s agoKalshi 42%polled, 38s agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 60%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Fjord
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
FatherlandArb
27.3%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 52¢ nets 4700 bps before fees.

Behemoth!
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
DiggerArb
21.1%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 26%polled, 38s agoKalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$512
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 25¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Disclosure Day
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Minotaur
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
15.7%
Polymarket 15%polled, 38s agoKalshi 17%polled, 38s agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 14¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

ObsessionArb
14.3%
Polymarket 14%polled, 38s agoKalshi 19%polled, 38s agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

JosephineArb
8.3%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 11%polled, 38s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

The Whisper Man
3.8%
Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Dune: Part Three on Kalshi at 23¢, sell on Polymarket at 91¢ (6800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three
  • La Bola Negra

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations". The Odyssey leads at 85.9%. Next is Dune: Part Three at 71.1%. $53K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Cinematography. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Cinematography when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets