The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 78%

Next is The Odyssey at 72%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
78%
Polymarket 78%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 82.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82.5¢
Sell Yes
73.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$121 (1.21x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The OdysseyArb
72%
Polymarket 83%polled, 47s agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 54¢ and selling on Polymarket at 78¢ nets 2400 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
50%
Polymarket 65%polled, 47s agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 46¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
44%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
43%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
WerwulfArb
40.8%
Polymarket 46%polled, 47s agoKalshi 73%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 3600 bps before fees.

I Love BoostersArb
33.6%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 41%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

The Devil Wears Prada 2Arb
26.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 35¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

Wuthering HeightsArb
22.2%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

MichaelArb
19.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Show 7 more outcomes
Wild Horse NineArb
19%
Polymarket 34%polled, 47s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

Fatherland
11.5%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
11.5%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DiggerArb
10.7%
Polymarket 14%polled, 47s agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
10.2%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 16%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Disclosure Day
9%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sense and Sensibility on Kalshi at 8¢, sell on Polymarket at 46¢ (3800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • The Odyssey
  • Sense and Sensibility

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations". The Black Ball leads at 78%. Next is The Odyssey at 72%. $46K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Costume Design. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Costume Design when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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