The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 63.7%

Next is La Bola Negra at 43%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
63.7%
Polymarket 58%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 67¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
43%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Dune: Part ThreeArb
33.4%
Polymarket 13.3%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
13.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 20¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5000 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
31.4%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5200 bps before fees.

WerwulfArb
28.4%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5800 bps before fees.

The Black Ball
21.3%
Polymarket 21.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $376 (3.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
21.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
26.6¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$376 (3.76x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
I Love BoostersArb
18.5%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 32¢ nets 2660 bps before fees.

Wuthering Heights
14.7%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
24.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$415 (4.15x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Fatherland
11.5%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
11.5%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Disclosure Day
9%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2Arb
8.9%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 760 bps before fees.

MichaelArb
8.8%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

Wild Horse NineArb
7.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 20¢ nets 1980 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
6.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 960 bps before fees.

DiggerArb
6.4%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Tie
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Werwulf on Polymarket at 12¢, sell on Kalshi at 70¢ (5800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Dune: Part Three

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Winner". The Odyssey leads at 63.7%. Next is La Bola Negra at 43%. $36K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Costume Design. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Costume Design when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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