The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$170K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Christopher Nolan 95.1%

Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 89.5%. The venues differ most on Peter Farrelly (Polymarket 5%, Kalshi 14.5%), a 9.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
95.1%
Polymarket 94.8%polled, just nowKalshi 99%polled, just nowKalshi 95%polled, just nowKalshi 91.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 96.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
94.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.1¢
Sell Yes
93.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 95¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96.1¢.

Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Calvo
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, just nowKalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 87¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.

Javier Ambrossi
82%
Polymarket 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Ambrossi
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Martin McDonagh
73.8%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, just nowKalshi 75%polled, just nowKalshi 80%polled, just nowKalshi 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 75¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.

Denis VilleneuveArb
71.5%
Polymarket 74%polled, just nowKalshi 59%polled, just nowKalshi 80%polled, just nowKalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 59¢ and selling on Polymarket at 60¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Olivia WildeArb
67.5%
Polymarket 57%polled, just nowKalshi 56%polled, just nowKalshi 79%polled, just nowKalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 59¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Nathan Fielder
62.4%
Polymarket 63.6%polled, just nowKalshi 62%polled, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
63.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 68¢.

Ryusuke HamaguchiArb
36%
Polymarket 26%polled, just nowKalshi 38%polled, just nowKalshi 47%polled, just nowKalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 27¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Show 27 more outcomes
Phil Lord and Chris Miller
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Lord and Chris Miller
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse EisenbergArb
31%
Polymarket 23%polled, just nowKalshi 24%polled, just nowKalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$823
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 24¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

Cristian MungiuArb
25.9%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, just nowKalshi 27%polled, just nowKalshi 34%polled, just nowKalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$687
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 25¢ and selling on Kalshi at 27¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu
18.3%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowKalshi 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Gray
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Gray
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sian Heder
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sian Heder
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Simon Stone
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simon Stone
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Miller
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, just nowKalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

David Fincher
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, just nowKalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Peter Farrelly
9.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, just nowKalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Alejandro González Iñárritu
9.5%
Polymarket 8%polled, just nowKalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$677
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Tony GilroyArb
9.4%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowKalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Mike Leigh
9.3%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowKalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11.8¢.

Curry BarkerArb
8.8%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8.7¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Paweł Pawlikowski
8.4%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowKalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Greta Gerwig
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greta Gerwig
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil Lord
7.4%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, just nowKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Steven SpielbergArb
6.8%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Na Hong-jin
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, just nowKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Joel Coen
5.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, just nowKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.4¢.

Beth de Araujo
4.5%
Polymarket 6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$932
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Andrew Haigh
4.4%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Aaron Sorkin
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben Affleck
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Janus Metz Pedersen
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

James Ashcroft
2.3%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Danny Boyle
2.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Olivia Wilde on Polymarket at 59¢, sell on Kalshi at 76¢ (1700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Nolan
  • Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
  • Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi

Live prices for Christopher Nolan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations". Christopher Nolan leads at 95.1%. Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 89.5%. $170K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed director is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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