The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$107K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

NAZA 85%

Next is You Can See Everything at 81%. The venues differ most on Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party (Polymarket 23%, Kalshi 14%), a 9.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
NAZA
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 37s agoKalshi 85%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
NAZA
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
NAZA
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 85¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

You Can See EverythingArb
81%
Polymarket 84%polled, 37s agoKalshi 80%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 80¢ and selling on Polymarket at 83¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem
66.4%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 69%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 68¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 74¢.

American Doctor
56.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 53%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

14th
40.3%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 42%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
14th
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
14th
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

Musk
28.8%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 29%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Musk
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Musk
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

One in a Million
28.4%
Polymarket 27%polled, 37s agoKalshi 32%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

Nuisance Bear
27.7%
Polymarket 27%polled, 37s agoKalshi 29%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Tutu
23.9%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 37s agoKalshi 25%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tutu
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tutu
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 19¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
16.3%
Polymarket 23%polled, 37s agoKalshi 14%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy You Can See Everything on Kalshi at 80¢, sell on Polymarket at 83¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • NAZA
  • You Can See Everything
  • Once Upon a Time in Harlem

Live prices for NAZA

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Nominations". NAZA leads at 85%. Next is You Can See Everything at 81%. $107K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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