The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$136K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

You Can See Everything 66.8%

Next is NAZA at 19.2%. The venues differ most on You Can See Everything (Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 77%), a 7.5-point gap.

You Can See Everything 66.8%NAZA 19.2%Once Upon a Time in Harlem 3%American Doctor 2.7%Musk 1.8%6 others 6.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
You Can See EverythingArb
66.8%
Polymarket 69.5%(66.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 77%(68.1% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
69.5%
Fair, margin removed
66.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
77%
Fair, margin removed
68.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 72¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

NAZA
19.2%
Polymarket 20.5%(19.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 22%(19.5% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
NAZA
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
NAZA
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem
3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.3¢.

American Doctor
2.7%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Musk
1.8%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Musk
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Musk
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

One in a Million
1.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tutu
1.2%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tutu
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$837
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tutu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nuisance Bear
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

14th
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
14th
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy You Can See Everything on Polymarket at 72¢, sell on Kalshi at 76¢ (400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • You Can See Everything
  • NAZA
  • Once Upon a Time in Harlem

Live prices for You Can See Everything

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner". You Can See Everything leads at 66.8%. Next is NAZA at 19.2%. $136K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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