The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$109K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

You Can See Everything 75%

Next is The Baddest Speechwriter of All at 67%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
You Can See Everything
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Tuners
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Tuners
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Listen
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Listen
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
One Last Order
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Last Order
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oh Whale
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oh Whale
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
A Derailment
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Derailment
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Water Cooler
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Water Cooler
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Polymarket
A Wolf in the Suburbs
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Wolf in the Suburbs
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
NAZA
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
NAZA
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
We're Fine
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
We're Fine
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
14th
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
14th
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
American Doctor
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Musk
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Musk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuisance Bear
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
One in a Million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tutu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tutu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • You Can See Everything
  • The Baddest Speechwriter of All
  • A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list You Can See Everything for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations". You Can See Everything leads at 75%. Next is The Baddest Speechwriter of All at 67%. $109K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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