The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$178K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

You Can See Everything 79%

Next is NAZA at 45.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
You Can See Everything
79%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
NAZA
45.8%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
NAZA
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
NAZA
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
14th
26%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
14th
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
14th
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
21.7%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 69%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuisance Bear
21.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Nuisance Bear
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
One in a Million
17.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
One in a Million
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tutu
15.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tutu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tutu
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
The Tuners
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Tuners
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Polymarket
American Doctor
14%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
American Doctor
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Musk
12.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Musk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Musk
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oh Whale
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oh Whale
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Water Cooler
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Water Cooler
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
10.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
One Last Order
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Last Order
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
A Derailment
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Derailment
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
A Wolf in the Suburbs
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Wolf in the Suburbs
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Polymarket
Listen
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Listen
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket
We're Fine
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
We're Fine
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • You Can See Everything
  • NAZA
  • The Baddest Speechwriter of All

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list You Can See Everything for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Winner". You Can See Everything leads at 79%. Next is NAZA at 45.8%. $178K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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