The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$158K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 94.4%

Next is All of a Sudden at 94%. The venues differ most on The Invite (Polymarket 29.7%, Kalshi 60%), a 30-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
94.4%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 99%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

All of a Sudden
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
88.6%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 90%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Toy Story 5
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildwood
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
La Bola Negra
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Possible Love
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ray Gunn
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
65.5%
Polymarket 61%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 70%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Iron Boy
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Forgotten Island
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dune: Part Three
54.9%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 53%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

You Can See Everything
53.4%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 56%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Project Hail Mary
50.9%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Minotaur
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
45.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 86%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Hoppers
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Invite
44.8%
Polymarket 29.7%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $326 (3.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
29.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30.7¢
Sell Yes
28.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$326 (3.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1949 / Fatherland
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tangles
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Debut
26.5%
Polymarket 33%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Coward
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coward
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Play Rocky
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
17.8%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elsinore
17.8%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ink
16.8%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Minions & Monsters
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Club Kid
12.8%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sheep in the Box
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sheep in the Box
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitter Christmas
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bitter Christmas
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Beloved
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Beloved
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Parallel Tales
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Dreamed Adventure
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
The Man I Love
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Man I Love
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • All of a Sudden
  • The Odyssey

Live prices for The Black Ball

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations". The Black Ball leads at 94.4%. Next is All of a Sudden at 94%. $158K has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Film Editing. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Film Editing when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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