The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$141K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 98.9%

Next is Toy Story 5 at 90%. The venues differ most on Fatherland (Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 2%), a 38-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
98.9%
Polymarket 98.9%polled, 18s agoKalshi 99%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
98.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 98.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

Toy Story 5
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildwood
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
La Bola Negra
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
All of a SuddenArb
72.3%
Polymarket 95.3%polled, 18s agoKalshi 95%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
91.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 91.9¢ nets 8690 bps before fees.

FjordArb
69.3%
Polymarket 91%polled, 18s agoKalshi 86%polled, 18s agoKalshi 14%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 90¢ nets 7500 bps before fees.

Ray Gunn
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iron Boy
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Forgotten Island
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Possible LoveArb
56.6%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 73%polled, 18s agoKalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 67¢ nets 6100 bps before fees.

Show 20 more outcomes
Hoppers
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
1949 / Fatherland
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
MinotaurArb
38.1%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 49%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 46¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.

Tangles
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 18s agoKalshi 30%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

FatherlandArb
26%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

CowardArb
14.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 21%polled, 18s agoKalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coward
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Coward
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Coward
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Minions & Monsters
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sheep in the Box
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sheep in the Box
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitter Christmas
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bitter Christmas
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Beloved
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Beloved
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
The Dreamed Adventure
4.8%
Polymarket 7%polled, 18s agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Parallel Tales
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Man I Love
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Man I Love
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Kalshi
Everytime
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Everytime
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Feito Pipa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Feito Pipa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
The Spiral
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Spiral
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy All of a Sudden on Kalshi at 5¢, sell on Polymarket at 91.9¢ (8690 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • Toy Story 5
  • Wildwood

Live prices for The Black Ball

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations". The Black Ball leads at 98.9%. Next is Toy Story 5 at 90%. $141K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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