The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Magan's Fare 67.5%

Next is Pale Sun at 48.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Magan's Fare
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magan's Fare
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pale Sun
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pale Sun
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary is Missing
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mary is Missing
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Meeting Your Maker
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meeting Your Maker
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nightfaces
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nightfaces
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Agapito
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Agapito
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Spilled Milk
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spilled Milk
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Birthday Gift
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Birthday Gift
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Man That I Wave At
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Man That I Wave At
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
32B
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
32B
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Magan's Fare
  • Pale Sun
  • Mary is Missing

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Nominations". Magan's Fare leads at 67.5%. Next is Pale Sun at 48.5%. $31K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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