The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
53 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Pale Sun 16.3%

Next is Agapito at 15%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Pale Sun 16.3%Agapito 15%Magan's Fare 13.5%Spilled Milk 10.6%Nightfaces 10.1%5 others 34.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 53 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Pale Sun
16.3%
Polymarket 17%(16.3% fair)polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 32.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $305 (3.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pale Sun
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
32.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$305 (3.05x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket
Agapito
15%
Polymarket 15.5%(14.9% fair)polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Agapito
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Magan's Fare
13.5%
Polymarket 14%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magan's Fare
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
Spilled Milk
10.6%
Polymarket 11%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spilled Milk
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Nightfaces
10.1%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nightfaces
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary is Missing
9.6%
Polymarket 10%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mary is Missing
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
The Man That I Wave At
9.2%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Man That I Wave At
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$510
Trade this on Polymarket
Meeting Your Maker
6.3%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meeting Your Maker
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Polymarket
32B
5.1%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
32B
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Polymarket
The Birthday Gift
4.3%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Birthday Gift
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pale Sun
  • Agapito
  • Magan's Fare

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner". Pale Sun leads at 16.3%. Next is Agapito at 15%. $3K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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