The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
34 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Werwulf 32.4%

Next is Digger at 17.3%. The venues differ most on Dune: Part Three (Polymarket 10%, Kalshi 4%), a 6.0-point gap.

Werwulf 32.4%Digger 17.3%The Odyssey 16.8%Clayface 9.3%Wicker 6.7%9 others 17.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 35 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Werwulf
32.4%
Polymarket 35.2%(33.2% fair)polled, 35 min agoKalshi 35%(32.4% fair)polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 35.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $282 (2.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
35.2%
Fair, margin removed
33.2%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
35.4¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$282 (2.82x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
32.4%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 35¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Digger
17.3%
Polymarket 21%(19.8% fair)polled, 35 min agoKalshi 16%(14.8% fair)polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
19.8%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.8%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 18¢ and selling on Polymarket at 19¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

The Odyssey
16.8%
Polymarket 18.5%(17.4% fair)polled, 35 min agoKalshi 18%(16.7% fair)polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.4%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16.7%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Clayface
9.3%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 11%(10.2% fair)polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clayface
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clayface
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.2%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Wicker
6.7%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 9%(8.3% fair)polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wicker
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wicker
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.9¢.

Dune: Part Three
6.5%
Polymarket 10%(9.4% fair)polled, 35 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

I Love Boosters
3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Madden
2.3%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Madden
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Madden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Michael
1.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Rose
1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Show 4 more outcomes
UNABOMBER
1%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Cry to Heaven
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Indicative gap, prices are 35 min old: Dune: Part Three asks 4¢ on Kalshi and bids 8¢ on Polymarket (400 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Werwulf
  • Digger
  • The Odyssey

Live prices for Werwulf

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner". Werwulf leads at 32.4%. Next is Digger at 17.3%. $53K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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