The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$113K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 86.1%

Next is La Bola Negra at 79%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
86.1%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 87%polled, 47s agoKalshi 63%polled, 47s agoKalshi 99%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 66¢ and selling on Polymarket at 94¢ nets 2800 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Black BallArb
55.8%
Polymarket 79%polled, 47s agoKalshi 69%polled, 47s agoKalshi 6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 71¢ nets 6500 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
55%
Polymarket 64%polled, 47s agoKalshi 64%polled, 47s agoKalshi 21%polled, 47s agoKalshi 71%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 21¢ and selling on Polymarket at 61¢ nets 4000 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
52.5%
Polymarket 52%polled, 47s agoKalshi 62%polled, 47s agoKalshi 6%polled, 47s agoKalshi 90%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 49¢ nets 4300 bps before fees.

Disclosure DayArb
49.9%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 62%polled, 47s agoKalshi 5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 64%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 11¢ and selling on Polymarket at 57¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.

Behemoth!Arb
42.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 34%polled, 47s agoKalshi 65%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 29¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

The Debut
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
You Can See Everything
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket
Ink
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Wild Horse NineArb
24.1%
Polymarket 28%polled, 47s agoKalshi 33%polled, 47s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 35%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Ray Gunn
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Toy Story 5
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Werwulf
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
13.5%
Polymarket 14%polled, 47s agoKalshi 13%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoKalshi 25%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

WhalefallArb
8.8%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 47s agoKalshi 16%polled, 47s agoKalshi 4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6.4¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

The Social ReckoningArb
7.3%
Polymarket 6%polled, 47s agoKalshi 7%polled, 47s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 15.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Cry to Heaven
4.8%
Kalshi 5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
3.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

The Mandalorian and Grogu
2.8%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 47s agoKalshi 4%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Black Ball on Kalshi at 6¢, sell on Polymarket at 71¢ (6500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • The Black Ball

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations". The Odyssey leads at 86.1%. Next is La Bola Negra at 79%. $113K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Score. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Score when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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