The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$119K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 94.4%

Next is The Debut at 88.8%. The venues differ most on Club Kid (Polymarket 62%, Kalshi 53%), a 9.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
94.4%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Debut
88.8%
Polymarket 85%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 90%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Club Kid
56.3%
Polymarket 62%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 53%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Obsession
53.5%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 54%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Fjord
44.5%
Polymarket 46%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 44%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elsinore
24.5%
Polymarket 23%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 29%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Behemoth!
21.8%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$991
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Drama
15.9%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 11%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Digger
15%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
14.1%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 8 more outcomes
Josephine
11.3%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Black Ball
6.2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Forgotten Island
4.7%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Odyssey
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Fatherland
2.7%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

A Place in Hell
2.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$962
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Invite
1.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
1.5%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • Club Kid

Live prices for Wild Horse Nine

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations". Wild Horse Nine leads at 94.4%. Next is The Debut at 88.8%. $119K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets