The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$85K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

La Nieve - The Black Ball 90.5%

Next is The Odyssey at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
La Nieve - The Black Ball
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Nieve - The Black Ball
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$722
Trade this on Polymarket
The Odyssey
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Black Ball
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part Three
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Disclosure Day
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
Behemoth!
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
By Any Means - By Any Means
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
By Any Means - By Any Means
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket
When I'm Home - The Odyssey
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
When I'm Home - The Odyssey
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wild Horse Nine
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Kalshi
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$822
Trade this on Polymarket
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whalefall
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Kalshi
Cry to Heaven
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Kalshi
The Mandalorian and Grogu
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Kalshi
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • The Odyssey
  • The Black Ball

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list La Nieve - The Black Ball for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations". La Nieve - The Black Ball leads at 90.5%. Next is The Odyssey at 87%. $85K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song. If a song is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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