The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

La Nieve - The Black Ball 42.3%

Next is This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut at 18.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

La Nieve - The Black Ball 42.3%This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut 18.4%I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 13.2%Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk 6.8%When I'm Home - The Odyssey 6%6 others 13.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
La Nieve - The Black Ball
42.3%
Polymarket 49.5%(42.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Nieve - The Black Ball
Last price
49.5%
Fair, margin removed
42.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut
18.4%
Polymarket 21.5%(18.4% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5
13.2%
Polymarket 15.5%(13.2% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$765
Trade this on Polymarket
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk
6.8%
Polymarket 8%(6.8% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Polymarket
When I'm Home - The Odyssey
6%
Polymarket 7%(6% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
When I'm Home - The Odyssey
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn
5.2%
Polymarket 6.2%(5.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn
Last price
6.2%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad
2.8%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights
2.7%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2
1.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
By Any Means - By Any Means
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
By Any Means - By Any Means
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!
0.5%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner". La Nieve - The Black Ball leads at 42.3%. Next is This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut at 18.4%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song. If a song is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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