The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Closes
Jan 21, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$11.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

La Bola Negra 90.9%

Next is The Odyssey at 85.3%. The venues differ most on La Bola Negra (Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 88%), a 6.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

10 of 132 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
La Bola Negra
90.9%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 88%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Odyssey
85.3%
Polymarket 97.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 46%live, 3 h agoKalshi 99%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 99%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
97.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Price
46%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

You Can See Everything
69.9%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 33%live, 3 h agoKalshi 81%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Price
33%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$131K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dune: Part Three
65.4%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 8%live, 3 h agoKalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 86%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Price
8%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$642K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Wild Horse Nine
62.6%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%live, 3 h agoKalshi 88%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 70%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$487K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Debut
56.4%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 75%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 72%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$370K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Project Hail Mary
56.1%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%live, 3 h agoKalshi 78%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 69%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$404K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$181K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Invite
47.1%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 58%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 69%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

I Play Rocky
45.7%
Polymarket 42%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 43%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Black Ball
33.8%
Kalshi 13%live, 3 h agoKalshi 96%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Price
13%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$665K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 48 more outcomes
Wildwood
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elsinore
23.9%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 32%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 32%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Possible Love
22.5%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
22.1%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 36%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a Sudden
21.1%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 36%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Obsession
16.5%
Polymarket 31%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 33%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$357K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Club Kid
16.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 39%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Artificial
14.8%
Kalshi 1%live, 3 h agoKalshi 56%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$367K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
14.5%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%live, 3 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$941K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Being Heumann
13.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 29%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Behemoth
9.4%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$177K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tender Loving Care
7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 25%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
6.3%
Polymarket 11%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$202K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Misty Green
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Misty Green
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
5.5%
Kalshi 1%live, 3 h agoKalshi 19%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Backrooms
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Whisper Man
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ink
4.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Saturn Return
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Primetime
3.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Parallel Tales
3.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Avengers: Doomsday
3.2%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%live, 3 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$372K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Josephine
3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
3%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$747
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sense and Sensibility
2.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Werwulf
2.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Disclosure Day
2.2%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1949 / Fatherland
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bucking Fastard
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bucking Fastard
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minotaur
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paper Tiger
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
1.9%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$328K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jack of Spades
1.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack of Spades
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jack of Spades
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
1.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Death of Robin Hood
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Death of Robin Hood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Death of Robin Hood
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
The Entertainment System Is Down
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Entertainment System Is Down
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Entertainment System Is Down
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Love Boosters
1.4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cry to Heaven
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarissa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
The Uprising
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Uprising
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$918
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tony
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tony
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • La Bola Negra
  • The Odyssey
  • You Can See Everything

Live prices for La Bola Negra

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations ". La Bola Negra leads at 90.9%. Next is The Odyssey at 85.3%. $11.6M has traded across 58 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 21, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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