The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$11.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
45 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 58.6%

Next is You Can See Everything at 38.1%. The venues differ most on I Play Rocky (Polymarket 0.3%, Kalshi 42%), a 42-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

6 of 121 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 46 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
58.6%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 46%live, 45 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$177K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Price
46%
As of
Live feed, 45 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 44¢ and selling on Kalshi at 97¢ nets 5300 bps before fees.

You Can See Everything
38.1%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 27%live, 45 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Price
27%
As of
Live feed, 45 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$129K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 22.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 75¢ nets 5210 bps before fees.

The Black Ball
35.5%
Kalshi 16%live, 45 min agoKalshi 94%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Price
16%
As of
Live feed, 45 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$658K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildwood
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Play Rocky
31.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 40¢ nets 3960 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
27.6%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 9%live, 45 min agoKalshi 83%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Price
9%
As of
Live feed, 45 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$633K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 10¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 7000 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
24.4%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 92%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$480K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 1.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 89¢ nets 8720 bps before fees.

Project Hail Mary
22.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 45 min agoKalshi 78%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 45 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$402K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$181K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 7540 bps before fees.

The Invite
20.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 57%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 5450 bps before fees.

The Debut
19.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$369K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 72¢ nets 7160 bps before fees.

Show 48 more outcomes
La Bola Negra
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Possible Love
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Artificial
14.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 56%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Artificial
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$353K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 52¢ nets 5150 bps before fees.

All of a Sudden
11.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 37%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 3380 bps before fees.

Fjord
9.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 3340 bps before fees.

Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Being Heumann
8.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Obsession
8.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 32%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$354K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$106K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 32¢ nets 3180 bps before fees.

Elsinore
8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2970 bps before fees.

Club Kid
7.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 21%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
7%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$935K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 4.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 21¢ nets 1650 bps before fees.

Misty Green
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Misty Green
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Primetime
5.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$98K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Whisper Man
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Behemoth
4.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$177K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1370 bps before fees.

Ink
4.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josephine
3.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 250 bps before fees.

Michael
3.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$202K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 990 bps before fees.

Parallel Tales
3.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Backrooms
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sense and Sensibility
2.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Saturn Return
2.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 380 bps before fees.

Werwulf
2.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bucking Fastard
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bucking Fastard
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minotaur
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paper Tiger
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
1.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Jack of Spades
1.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack of Spades
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jack of Spades
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
1.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Death of Robin Hood
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Death of Robin Hood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Death of Robin Hood
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
The Entertainment System Is Down
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Entertainment System Is Down
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Entertainment System Is Down
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Love Boosters
1.4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
1949 / Fatherland
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cry to Heaven
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
1.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$328K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Disclosure Day
1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 190 bps before fees.

Avengers: Doomsday
1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%live, 45 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 45 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$371K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 190 bps before fees.

Tender Loving Care
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Uprising
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Uprising
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$918
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tony
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tony
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Clarissa
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fatherland
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 46 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 46 min old: Wild Horse Nine asks 1.8¢ on Polymarket and bids 89¢ on Kalshi (8720 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • You Can See Everything
  • The Black Ball

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner". The Odyssey leads at 58.6%. Next is You Can See Everything at 38.1%. $11.8M has traded across 58 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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