The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$76K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 96.4%

Next is The Odyssey at 73.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
96.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Polymarket
The OdysseyArb
73.8%
Polymarket 78%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 59¢ and selling on Polymarket at 77¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
48%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 19¢ and selling on Polymarket at 57¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
45.2%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 63¢ nets 5100 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
39%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DiggerArb
29.4%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 58¢ nets 5400 bps before fees.

WerwulfArb
28.3%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 46¢ nets 4200 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
19.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
BackroomsArb
19.3%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 19¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
18.7%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 23¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Show 7 more outcomes
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
12.3%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

Wuthering HeightsArb
12.2%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 14¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

WildwoodArb
11.1%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 860 bps before fees.

Fatherland
11%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
11%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2
11%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Digger on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 58¢ (5400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations". The Black Ball leads at 96.4%. Next is The Odyssey at 73.8%. $76K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Production Design. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Production Design when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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