The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Winner

Closes
Mar 14, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$66K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 69.4%

Next is La Bola Negra at 39%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
69.4%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 55s agoKalshi 59%polled, 55s agoKalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 61¢ and selling on Kalshi at 90¢ nets 2900 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
39%
Kalshi 8%polled, 55s agoKalshi 70%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dune: Part ThreeArb
34.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 55s agoKalshi 13%polled, 55s agoKalshi 70%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 21¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 3900 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
24.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 12%polled, 55s agoKalshi 60%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 50¢ nets 4980 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
19.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
DiggerArb
17.2%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.3¢
Sell Yes
15.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$578 (5.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15.6¢ nets 1160 bps before fees.

BackroomsArb
14.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 3400 bps before fees.

WerwulfArb
12.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 2410 bps before fees.

Fatherland
11%
Kalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
11%
Kalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
The Devil Wears Prada 2
11%
Kalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
WildwoodArb
10.2%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 55s agoKalshi 3%polled, 55s agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 1060 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
7.9%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 670 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
7.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 980 bps before fees.

Wuthering HeightsArb
7.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 2%polled, 55s agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 980 bps before fees.

The Black Ball
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Project Hail Mary on Polymarket at 0.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 50¢ (4980 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Dune: Part Three

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Winner". The Odyssey leads at 69.4%. Next is La Bola Negra at 39%. $66K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 14, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Production Design. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Production Design when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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