The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Project Hail Mary 92.5%

Next is The Odyssey at 79%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Odyssey
79%
Polymarket 79%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part Three
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Werwulf
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black Ball
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whalefall
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
The Mosquito Bowl
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Mosquito Bowl
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Behemoth!
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Disclosure Day
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Godzilla Minus Zero
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
The End of Oak Street
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The End of Oak Street
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
The Debut
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Project Hail Mary
  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations". Project Hail Mary leads at 92.5%. Next is The Odyssey at 79%. $21K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Sound. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Sound when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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