The Prediction Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

Closes
Mar 15, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$164K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Anne Hathaway 89.5%

Next is Linda Cardellini at 85%. The venues differ most on Betty Gilpin (Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 8%), a 37-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anne Hathaway
89.5%
Polymarket 88%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 90.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 88¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.

Linda Cardellini
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Hannah Einbinder
84.5%
Kalshi 84.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hannah Einbinder
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Samantha Morton
77.3%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 75.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 75¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 79¢.

Katherine LaNasa
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katherine LaNasa
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Penélope Cruz
75.5%
Polymarket 75%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 76.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 74¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Michelle Pfeiffer
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Pfeiffer
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Allison Janney
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Allison Janney
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tao Okamoto
65%
Polymarket 62%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 64¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.

Amanda Seyfried
60.6%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 60¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 60¢.

Show 24 more outcomes
Kate O'FlynnArb
52.1%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 56¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

Olivia ColmanArb
41.1%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 39¢ and selling on Kalshi at 44¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Scarlett Johansson
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mariana di Girolamo
28.3%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana Di Girolamo
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

Sandra Hüller
26.1%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 25¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 40¢.

Parker Posey
21.8%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Alice Bailey Johnson
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alice Bailey Johnson
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Colleen Camp
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colleen Camp
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elizabeth Debicki
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Debicki
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sophie Okonedo
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wunmi Mosaku
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wunmi Mosaku
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Merritt Wever
18.7%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Betty Gilpin
17.1%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Zendaya
14.5%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Youn Yuh-jung
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Youn Yuh-jung
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Danielle Deadwyler
13.8%
Polymarket 19.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
19.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Gemma Chan
12.3%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Constance Zimmer
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Constance Zimmer
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jessica Williams
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jessica Williams
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joy Sunday
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joy Sunday
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Margaret Qualley
6.9%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.5¢.

Isabella Rossellini
6.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Marion Bailey
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Inde NavarretteArb
3.3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Kate O'Flynn on Polymarket at 56¢, sell on Kalshi at 81¢ (2500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anne Hathaway
  • Linda Cardellini
  • Hannah Einbinder

Live prices for Anne Hathaway

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations". Anne Hathaway leads at 89.5%. Next is Linda Cardellini at 85%. $164K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 15, 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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