The Prediction Markets

Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

Starts in 4 daysKickoff
Traded
$122K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Mark Sutcliffe 85.4%

Next is Jeff Leiper at 13.3%. The venues differ most on Jeff Leiper (Polymarket 14.1%, Kalshi 11%), a 3.1-point gap.

Mark Sutcliffe 85.4%Jeff Leiper 13.3%Alex Lawson 0.5%Neil Saravanamuttoo 0.5%Catherine McKenney 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mark Sutcliffe
85.4%
Polymarket 85%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 86%(86.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Sutcliffe
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Sutcliffe
Last price
86%
Fair, margin removed
86.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

Jeff LeiperArb
13.3%
Polymarket 14.1%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeff Leiper
Last price
14.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
13.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Leiper
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13.5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Alex LawsonArb
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Lawson
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Lawson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$831
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Neil Saravanamuttoo
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neil Saravanamuttoo
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Neil Saravanamuttoo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Catherine McKenney
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Catherine McKenney
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Catherine McKenney
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.5¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Alex Lawson on Polymarket at 0.4¢, sell on Kalshi at 1¢ (60 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City Clerk of the City of Ottawa
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mark Sutcliffe
  • Jeff Leiper
  • Alex Lawson

Live prices for Mark Sutcliffe

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner". Mark Sutcliffe leads at 85.4%. Next is Jeff Leiper at 13.3%. $122K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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