The Prediction Markets

PA-02 House election: Jessica Arriaga vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 20% 95.5%

Next is At least 22% at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 20%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 24%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 24%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30%
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 32%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 32%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 34%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Commissions, Elections and Legislation, Department of State, Harrisburg, PA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 20%
  • At least 22%
  • At least 24%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "PA-02 House election: Jessica Arriaga vote percent". At least 20% leads at 95.5%. Next is At least 22% at 85%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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