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Best ask
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What the markets expect
40m-$50m 37.1%
Next is 50m-$60m at 28.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
40m-$50m37.1%33.3%37.1% fair32.6¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3 min ago34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)40m-$50m37.1%Polymarket 33.3%(37.1% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
40m-$50m
37.1%
33.3%
37.1% fair
32.6¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
40m-$50m
37.1%
Polymarket 33.3%(37.1% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40m-$50m
- Last price
- 33.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 37.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $944
50m-$60m28.4%25.5%28.4% fair16¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 3 min ago35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)50m-$60m28.4%Polymarket 25.5%(28.4% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
50m-$60m
28.4%
25.5%
28.4% fair
16¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
50m-$60m
28.4%
Polymarket 25.5%(28.4% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 50m-$60m
- Last price
- 25.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $1K
60m-$70m16.2%14.5%16.2% fair1¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 3 min ago28¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $357 (3.57x)60m-$70m16.2%Polymarket 14.5%(16.2% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
60m-$70m
16.2%
14.5%
16.2% fair
1¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
28¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
60m-$70m
16.2%
Polymarket 14.5%(16.2% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60m-$70m
- Last price
- 14.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 16.2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $295
40m11.6%10.4%11.6% fair1¢ bid, 19.8¢ askpolled, 3 min ago19.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $505 (5.05x)40m11.6%Polymarket 10.4%(11.6% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
40m
11.6%
10.4%
11.6% fair
1¢ bid, 19.8¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
19.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $505 (5.05x)
40m
11.6%
Polymarket 10.4%(11.6% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40m
- Last price
- 10.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 11.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $505 (5.05x)
- Volume
- $95
70m+6.7%6%6.7% fair3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3 min ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)70m+6.7%Polymarket 6%(6.7% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
70m+
6.7%
6%
6.7% fair
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
70m+
6.7%
Polymarket 6%(6.7% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 70m+
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $434
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 40m-$50m
- 50m-$60m
- 60m-$70m
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” Sale Price". 40m-$50m leads at 37.1%. Next is 50m-$60m at 28.4%. $3K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.
Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” (Lot 26A) is expected to be sold at Christie's 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the final auction sale price paid for Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser”. If the final sale price falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "<$40m". The market will resolve according to the final listed “Price Realised” on Christie's (https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6614747).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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