The Prediction Markets

Pellegrino vs Gulin

Starts in 58 minKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Pellegrino 63.9%

Next is Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5 at 58.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pellegrino
63.9%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 64%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Pellegrino
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$737
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 63¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.

Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 Winner
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 Winner
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
3¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Match O/U 21.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Match O/U 23.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Match O/U 22.5
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Andrea Pellegrino (-1.5) vs Svyatoslav Gulin (+1.5)
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Svyatoslav Gulin
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Svyatoslav Gulin
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$462
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Svyatoslav Gulin (-1.5) vs Andrea Pellegrino (+1.5)
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pellegrino
  • Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5
  • Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5

Live prices for Pellegrino

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pellegrino vs Gulin". Pellegrino leads at 63.9%. Next is Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Svyatoslav Gulin Game Spread +/-2.5 at 58.5%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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