The Prediction Markets

Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Stelson, 1+ pts 76%

Next is Stelson, 4+ pts at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stelson, 1+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stelson, 1+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Kalshi
Stelson, 4+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stelson, 4+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Kalshi
Stelson, 7+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stelson, 7+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Stelson, 10+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stelson, 10+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$688
Trade this on Kalshi
Stelson, 13+ pts
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stelson, 13+ pts
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Perry, 2+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perry, 2+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
17.2%
Polymarket 17.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
17.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.3¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$546 (5.46x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
14.3%
Polymarket 14.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
14.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
13.3%
Polymarket 13.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
13.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Perry, 5+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perry, 5+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stelson, 16+ pts
9.4%
Kalshi 9.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stelson, 16+ pts
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Perry, 8+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perry, 8+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 18%+
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18%+
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stelson, 1+ pts
  • Stelson, 4+ pts
  • Stelson, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Stelson, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory". Stelson, 1+ pts leads at 76%. Next is Stelson, 4+ pts at 70%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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